Aug. 8, 2022

A great trading week, Nasdaq rally, alternative investments and what's making the news!

A great trading week, Nasdaq rally, alternative investments and what's making the news!

It was a great week for Members Trading last week and with the recent Nasdaq rally maybe the markets are going to push back up?  We're not so sure and we discuss the juggling act that the Central Banks have to do in stopping inflation but not killing the markets.

Alternative investments are on the rise (it always happens when traditional investments are underperforming) and we investigate those.

We ask why older people that left the workforce are coming back and what type of roles they're getting.

Plus what has happened to Softbank, they have just announced a loss of $23bn.

In this episode:

  • A great week for Inteligex Traders
  • Alternative investments, do they make sense?
  • Older employees returning to the workforce
  • Why have we stopped hearing about Ukraine
  • The disaster that is Softbank

Unknown Speaker  0:02  
Everybody, it's Monday the eighth of August Yes, the eighth of the eighth of 2022. Welcome to rolling bananas with Mark sear my co host, Peter northward. Hello. Welcome Peter. beautiful, gorgeous sunny day here in the UK about, I'd say 25 centigrade, which is in American money at, I reckon 8384, which this country is fantastic. So huge amounts of positivity on the weather front. But the markets are still from what I can say they're still largely on holiday Peter, but with plenty of opportunity, even though they're on holiday, we're seeing volumes are down volumes are definitely down if you listen, because the numbers 20% Plus, we had an up week last week, we had quite a good day.

Unknown Speaker  0:51  
From a pure market point of day moving up, I think it was Wednesday, Thursday. But from a trading point of view, we had a great week, markets always moving and moving up and down some great trades by our members. They're all posted on the website, as you know, so yeah, markets are quieter. If you're trading, you've just got to be a little bit more patient. Sometimes you just got to close the lid on your laptop and walk away. But you know, the trades there if you want them. Yeah, I mean, to be honest with you with I've got 3040 years, nearly 40 years in a week's time of experience in the in the markets and often say to people,

Unknown Speaker  1:28  
the trades, you don't take the ones that really matter. So if you can see the market literally has no momentum, close the laptop lid walk away. But also people have to understand there's an optimum volatility, one of the biggest lies in trading and it's often used by what I would call the snake oil salesmen that you know, there are a lot of them in trading is look at the volatility, volatility means we make money. That just isn't true. And we know that from earlier on this year, when we saw the on the NASDAQ, you were seeing $4,002 Candles over a 15 minute period. Now that's enough to wipe a lot of people's accounts out. So what we've got at the moment is, yes, there are lower volumes. But with intelligence, we are seeing predictable volatility. And that's what it's all about. It's about predicting that volatility. So, yeah, I'm personally really super positive, I think we've seen this product perform really well, I think we're seeing our members really perform well. And that that's what matters to me is to see those guys really getting to grips with it. Of course, not everybody. But not everybody wants to be a trader or can be a trader, but by far the majority now really getting to grips with it. Unlike the economies where nobody seems to be able to get a grip with it. I mean, clearly, the economies are turning everywhere, the US is still saying they will avoid a recession. Everybody I speak to in the States says they're already in a recession. Bank of England, as we know, last week telegraphed Yeah, we're going to have a recession and what's worse, it's going to be pretty bad. What are your thoughts on that? Where are we Peter in this whole economic cycle? It was interesting, wasn't it, as you say last week to see the difference between the two positions. And let's be clear position is probably the right the right word, because there's a huge amount of positioning that the central banks do. Because let's face it, they are in a pretty tough situation. They only have one lever interest rates to try and stop a recession.

Unknown Speaker  3:32  
So what do they need? They need help from businesses out there need businesses out there to stop spending? Right? Yes, that's currently fueling inflation. So in terms of the messaging that they give, that messaging goes to the businesses and the businesses and say, Are we going to do this than the other? It's a fine line, though, because what they can't do is completely dampened down the market. So I think you see Powell in the US really trying to use my son uh, you know, that type rope across the Twin Towers, you remember that many years ago? The French guy very gifted with a good movie actually good film, yes. Because he's trying to say, look, you know, keep going up markets because I need you to keep going up. Whereas on the in the UK side, he's saying, like, basically, it's gonna get bad, please stop spending money. And every country around the world is facing inflation and increasing inflation. So yeah, I think it's, it's an interesting time with generational thing as well, right. I mean, generally, a lot of people have left the job market. Again, I saw a really interesting article the other day about people that have left the UK job market. Maybe they've 5860 61. And now they're coming back to it because they're seeing such a huge erosion in their spending power, that they've got no choice but they can't get back into the jobs that they had as professions. They're becoming checkout chicks, and things like that, which is a phenomenon that I know America has had it for a long time, like you go to home base and they're 55

Unknown Speaker  5:00  
75 year old guys, yeah, greeters and whatever. We've never seen that in the UK. And I think that's a really strange development for us to get to grips with. Yeah, I think it is, I think it's a good thing, like you say, you go to Home Depot and places like that in the US. And there's always very much been that.

Unknown Speaker  5:16  
Participation, let's say in those sorts of roles, and I think we're gonna see that increasingly here because people have left, and they thought they had a certain amount of money. And that would buy them a certain amount of things every week, every month every year. And now all of a sudden, it looks like it's not going to so what do you do, you have to get more work. And often those people who left the labour force, they don't want to come back into that full time, not 40 hour week job anyway. So casual labour for them 1520 hours a week is is ideal. I mean, interesting. We've got, as you saw a new member this week,

Unknown Speaker  5:47  
who happens to be a friend of mine.

Unknown Speaker  5:50  
He's a guy who's 67, he's just had enough of his full time job, he just wants to trade and make 150 $200 a day, he knows it's gonna take six to nine months to get there. But he has both the time and the inclination to make it work. I think you're gonna see a lot more of that, because let's face it, you're 67 years old, his wife sadly, died quite recently, it's very difficult to suddenly say, well, I'll go out and I'll stick at a full time job working in it or whatever, he doesn't have the inclination for it. And in all honesty, I just don't think he's got the stamina anymore. I mean, I know myself at 58 in a few days time.

Unknown Speaker  6:33  
I don't think I've got the stamina for a full on banging it out career type job anymore. I like what I do. And I love what I do. And that's enough for me. And so I think that that part of the economy will change. We're seeing a corpse strikes for the first time in ages, people going on strike strikes, we're seeing a lot of unionisation Union votes in the US around Amazon and companies like that. So you're seeing all of the sort of the hallmarks, if you like, of an economy that looks like it's turning, and people trying to secure their positions more. We're also seeing it in the investment markets as well, as we've seen. You interviewed a guy last week. Really interesting guy, the comic guy. Yeah. But we're seeing comics, we're seeing wine investments coming back to the fore. You know, you get a lot more of those ads falling around the internet whiskey. And our favourite one we found over the weekend. James Bond, James Bond. Yeah, there is for those of you that are interested in please God, you might just be interested at a cursory level, there's a huge James Bond prop auction, including such things as one of the prop guns from the Man with the Golden Gun, which is expected to go for a rather heady 25,000 US dollars. Now, the subtext of that was not that it was the golden gun. It was one of the prop golden guns, so I did a little bit of digging. And they actually made 25 of them. So you've got no idea whether the golden gun that you purchase has ever been pointed at any one of the three nipples of Scaramanga is true. But does that matter? Because a little bit of a bond geek? Wasn't that gun made by a lighter company? I don't know. Actually. It could one look at a lighter that he puts together. Maybe that was just in the film. I think it might have been might have been the film, I've overridden that. And some of the things in the movie that happen as well, like where he punches Jaws about 40 times or whatever.

Unknown Speaker  8:35  
So look, I think, I think you've seen that and the comment guy, actually, I'll tell you what I liked about him. He was very authentic. Yeah. He had a he has a genuine love for comics. And he did say, Well, I've been at this 10 years, and I've finally got it to $30,000 a year profit. And we're in a bit of a recession for comics already. So I loved his authenticity, and I loved his honesty is very clear. It wasn't a get rich, quick, quick scheme. Whereas the number of get rich quick schemes that are coming out, I mean, I saw an advert at the weekend, which I sent to you said, this barrel of whiskey sold for and I'll convert it to dollars $1.2 million, and you paid only seven and a half $1,000 for it. And then in the small print, it said like 34 years ago, you'd done that? Well, at that time, that was a significant investment, probably the equivalent to 70 $80,000 Now, maybe more $100,000.

Unknown Speaker  9:33  
And they missed a lot of the points, which is how do you know that whiskey would work and others? I mean, just a plethora of these snake oil guys are going to be coming out of the woodwork now. And I think it's a very dangerous time to be making alternative investments. Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, and I started to question whether then you'd have you look at the sort of the comic guy or traditionally people who collected stamps and maybe wine to a certain degree

Unknown Speaker  10:00  
Read, they're passionate about the thing that they're looking at and they're getting involved with when I see my son points them out to me these UFC fighters or boxers coming out and you know, you know a Pokemon card has been bought for $10 million and they come out with it you know in like a plastic box around their neck when they come out for a fight. No one knows who's got it. Oh my god, they've bought it. You think? I don't know if you're just into Pokemon cards, you're not really are you just it's just a money thing. It's a bit like watches right now. You know, you've not been able to buy a Rolex for love nor money for the last three years because guess what anybody who bought crypto and you know, had made money and was on social media wanted a Rolex right? So yeah, so they run out or at least something like a Rolex like a Rolex or these, you know, ordermark PKW probably mispronounced that or Richard mele watches like Cavendish, your mate wears a lot of Tour de France geyser seems to be given those as a gift. And I think that don't changes the dynamic right? When it goes from a passion and a hobby. And you're in something with a group of people who have the same interest as something that just becomes pure money. Just feels a bit capitalist, a bit dirty, doesn't it, you know, a little bit but not quite as dirty as soft bank.

Unknown Speaker  11:16  
I say that advisedly, probably waiting for a lawsuit or whatever but soft bank, just before we started recording this, they posted a $23 billion loss. And this isn't the first last they've posted. So I remember like, maybe three years ago, when Softbank was seen as the everything they touch turns to gold, it would appear everything they touch now, sort of turn into something that smells a little bit instead of gold. Yeah. So Softbank are one of the biggest global investors in technology have always been looking for, you know, the next new thing to invest in and also invest in big established companies as well. But you know, it's making bets. It's like the whiskey barrel that you mentioned, you know, one of their huge bets was on WeWork. Right? And that one didn't come off fairly.

Unknown Speaker  12:08  
You only need to make a few really bad bets, and you're not where you thought you were. And it's times like these people look at Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger with Berkshire Hathaway, and they go, Huh, you guys know what you're doing? Even they might lost a lot of money last quarter.

Unknown Speaker  12:24  
But over time, they're just still building money because they buy what they know. And they buy what they know people need. And then there's always this difference when you get into it. Let's call it the crypto bubble, because I think we can safely say it was a bubble. Now, when people are diving into stuff that keeps growing and growing and growing, experienced investors know it's going to stop at some point. So they have a decision to make. So do I try and get in now and get out quickly? Or do I just assume it's a bubble? I don't get in at all. And people like, you know, the Berkshire Hathaway's who've been doing it for what 60 years probably now what do they know makes money? Heinz tomato ketchup makes money. Railroads make money. Dairy Queen makes money, fundamental things fundamental things day in day out. McDonald's makes money day in day out Starbucks makes money.

Unknown Speaker  13:13  
And you know, it's it's all to do with risk risk profile, and you choose your risk profile, because you're investing. Like your comment guy. Clearly, he's got a passion. But you know, he'd made some really nice investments that need done that $300 down, it turned into? Well, I think 21,000 street value. Yeah, someone had offered him 19. But he was the you know, the other thing I loved about him was, he was actually quite dispassionate about it with the exception of one or two things you said I keep because I absolutely love it that cover that you showed towards the end of area. You said I can't get rid of this because I paid the guy to actually draw it for me. Yeah, that's not for sale. Yeah, everything else in his entire portfolio was for sale. Yeah. And that I think that's a bit like a very similar approach to the Charlie Munger is of this world to kind of all their stocks.

Unknown Speaker  14:04  
They're super interested in the returns and all that sort of thing that they're getting. But fundamentally, it's a business right, the one stock I believe that Warren Buffett said he would never sell his coke. But I wonder if even that's true now because that soft drink sales are falling, believe it or not.

Unknown Speaker  14:20  
And of course, well, you know, we were both at Costa Costa in a can is now one of the best sellers in the UK. If you go to Costco, that's like it's everywhere. 1000s and 1000s of cans of of Costa Coffee in a can. So hey, we all need to eat we all need to drink.

Unknown Speaker  14:41  
But we don't all need to have Lego models or bits of Jane's art. Well, we probably all do need a little bit of James Bond memorabilia if I can afford it, but we don't need those things. So again, it's tough for me it's all about a blend, right? trade a little invest a little I don't think you can ever time them off.

Unknown Speaker  15:00  
Even when it comes to pension investing, you know, your 401 K or whatever I think I know there are some people that can take it all out and invest it. But I don't know how you feel about that, to me, I think the markets will go down but pulling it all out and putting it in cash. So risky, right, I think is risky. It's, you know, this is the money that you have for your future, right. And when you select different in the UK to the US, but when you have an amount of money, that's quite a big amount of money, because it's been built up over the money you've put in monthly to scheme over a period of time, when that suddenly becomes available to you. That's when your any financial education that you've had, right, and as we've talked about a lot on this show, often people haven't had a lot of that that's when it comes into play. Yeah, because that's when the scammers show up. That's when the scammers show up. That's also when yeah, I've always wanted a red Ferrari sort of appears in the back of your head. And now suddenly, I've got the money to get my hands on that read for now. Don't worry, darling, I'll pay it all back as soon as I've driven it around the block. So yeah, and scammers, you're talking about that we're seeing scammers as well now appear and you see this in these economic cycles as well. We're seeing, you know, there's big problems with energy prices, particularly here in Europe. So we've seen scams now, people phoning up, and they're always going for vulnerable people, which is, you know, absolutely tragic. So it's always the elderly people, all your energy bills is gonna go up by, you know, 75%. But if you give me this money, now, I can make sure it goes up by 50%. And that kind of thing. And they're not, you know,

Unknown Speaker  16:31  
they're just bogus, and they're just trying to make money and they're in boiler rooms, you know, in in wherever parts of the world I think they also everybody plays on your emotions, right? This one scam, which is not a financial scam. In the sense we're talking about now, it's on WhatsApp, where you get a WhatsApp message purporting to be from one of your kids. And it says I've lost my phone. And this is the new number. And seemingly from what I've read in the newspaper, I don't if you read it as well, but people are sending 1000s of pounds to people to bank accounts that they've never heard of, etc, etc. And they're doing it without even speaking to their kids. Now, my son and daughter, you know, they're both relatively sensible, but if they, if they needed some money, obviously, I'll give it to them. Yeah, but I wouldn't do it off the back of a WhatsApp message message. I'd actually say, pick up the phone. Talk to me about what's going on. And then yes, I'll send it to you. But I was reading somebody yesterday sent 7000 pounds $10,000 to a number that just said, this is your daughter. I'm stuck. Please send me this money to help me out. I can't talk about it right now. They actually sent the money now for me. I hate to say it, but that is a very naive person doing that. It's a bit strange or it's it's an interesting father, daughter, mother daughter dynamic, whatever it was, this is where being a Victorian dad has always stood me and

Unknown Speaker  17:57  
I will never transfer any money to my children, which ends with a zero unless the zeros after the decimal point. Yeah, good point. So I would never get scammed out of that much money. I just think it's it's it's really sad, but the world at the moment. I mean, there are a lot of bright spots out there. I think if you're a trader, it's a really, really super optimistic. We can see the markets coming strangely enough. Yes. I'm super optimistic about trading. Yeah, I'm even a little bit okay about investing. Because you know, if you look at your pension pot on a daily basis, it will drive you mad. If you look at your 401 K even weekly, it will drive you mad you 401k is something you need to look at annually, maybe every six months just to rebalance it. But just if you focus on it, it will drive you bonkers, because on any given day, it can be up or down to 3% as we know.

Unknown Speaker  18:46  
And if you notice how well first of all Ukraine, almost out of the news in the UK for a while it was their anomaly, and I don't want to be political about it. But it's the world in which we live there were 500 missiles a day, landing on Israel, from last Wednesday through yesterday. 500 missiles a day. I don't think I saw it on the on the UK NEWS or heard anything about it or saw it on the website. But I think that that was it. And this will comes back to what I paraphrase is the look of fluffy puppy syndrome, which I can't really take full credit for because it's a homer simpson thing. So you're focusing on one thing and suddenly a fluffy puppy goes past it all like a fluffy puppy. And so here the weather has been really good. Commonwealth Games has been on. We've been watching the Tour de France. There's quite a buoyant, uplifting feeling in the country now.

Unknown Speaker  19:40  
It was over 120 days ago when it was 468 days, four or five months ago when Ukraine invaded didn't look as rosy The sky was grey outside. You know, we were still in the tail end of lockdown. We still didn't know if we were gonna go out and go on holiday.

Unknown Speaker  19:56  
And I think that's a bit of a problem, right? It's a bit of a problem.

Unknown Speaker  20:00  
as a human species, because, you know, we just forget about these things that are going on because these people desperately need our support. Well, I think they do. But I just think now that look, I just think we're in when strange economic times, we've still got that big thing that could really affect Europe can, which is the Russians could turn the gas off. I know, I've spoken about this before. But when it's 25 centigrade outside, you and I are not thinking about, would it be great to better turn the central heating on in four months time, but usually, I'm thinking it's minus that you literally don't think about it. So in the midst of doom, there's a lot of a lot of positive things in amongst the positive, there's a lot of doom. And just finally, because of recognising a time's up, just finally, there was one thing I'll recommend to all of you, which is on Netflix, which is it's called footage of World War Two recovered now there's already been World War Two in colour, where they we've coloured it. This is a particular one hour documentary, completely silent, obviously, because they, I suppose they didn't have sound at the time when they're doing it. of Germany, in 1945, just after,

Unknown Speaker  21:14  
AFTER D DAY, that sort of two to three months, the last bit of the push into Germany, and particularly the state of Germany after the war was a disaster wasn't here's, here's the interesting, absolute disaster totally chaotic. And the bit that fascinated minutes. This is, to me, this is all about standard.

Unknown Speaker  21:36  
And this one piece of footage, there are lines and lines and lines of people literally scrambling on bond buildings in a bucket chain to get water from the one remaining tabs so that everybody could drink.

Unknown Speaker  21:51  
Every single one of them was dressed in either a nice dress, proper shoes, wearing hats, the men had humbugs on or whatever the type of hats wanted, you'd actually think to myself, right in the middle of all of that, yeah, people still dressed in a certain way. It was kind of like it was just de rigueur. Now I can't imagine anybody dressing in anything other than like, Nikes and a T shirt or whatever. It's, I just thought that was an interesting contrast with society today. Yeah, I think you're right. We used to have standards. We just have time on a Sunday. That kind of thing, didn't they? They used to be. Yeah, no shopping on a Sunday. Yeah. It's a very different world, as we've covered in several areas today. That's it for this Monday's rolling bananas. We'll probably do a special in the week again, because there's fairly large chunks of news coming out. coming out this week. Yeah, absolutely. If we get anything special, we'll be there. If not, we've enjoyed rolling bananas with you today. So I'm gonna say it's good night from me, and it's good night from him.